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GDP to grow by 9.2% in 2010-11: CMIE

The Indian economy is expected to grow by 9.2 percent in 2010-11 following impressive growth in the manufacturing and services sectors, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said here.

"We maintain that the Indian economy will grow by 9.2 percent in 2010-11, as we expect impressive growth in the manufacturing and services sectors as well," CMIE said in a statement.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) dropped dramatically to 5.6 percent in August, after growing by 13.8 percent in July. It had recorded a growth of 11.2 percent in the June quarter, but we believe that the growth was much higher than 11.2 percent, CMIE said.

This is because sales revenues of the manufacturing companies rose by 23.8 percent, while the rate of inflation in manufactured products (including petroleum products) was 8.2 percent, implying that sales volumes grew by about 14.4 percent.

The IIP has a very old base year (1993-94), outdated weights and a fixed frame of products and companies, and had miscalculated industrial growth for the preceding two years (2008-09 and 2009-10) as well. It is therefore imperative that the index is corrected at the earliest to enable meaningful analysis, CMIE said.
In August, the rate of inflation touched a six-month low of 8.5 percent. It was calculated as per the new series released on 14 September with 2004-05 as the base year. A moderation in the prices of primary food articles, manufactured food products and paper & paper products helped keep inflation in check.

We expect WPI-based inflation to moderate to 7.9 percent in 2010-11, as compared to our earlier projection of 8.5 percent based on the old series, it said.

CMIE expects that the agricultural production to grow by 7.2 percent pc in 2010-11.

The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon has been delayed this year, and the plentiful rain across large parts of the country has encouraged farmers to bring more land under cultivation.

As of October 7, kharif sowing was completed across 1,022 lakh hectares, which was 64 lakh hectares more than the acreage reported in the corresponding period of 2009.

Cumulative rainfall for the season (June-September) is 102 percent of the long period average, according to the India Meteorological Department's end-of-season report.

Agricultural production is therefore expected to grow by a healthy 7.2 percent in 2010-11, after recording a 6.6 percent decline in the preceding fiscal, CMIE said.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

FDI inflows down by about 60% in Aug

Reflecting fragile recovery in world's major economies, foreign direct investment into India dipped for the third consecutive month, by about 60 percent to USD 1.33 billion in August.
The FDI inflows in August 2009 were USD 3.26 billion.

Contrary to smart recovery in the domestic economy and a rebound in exports, overseas investment show a slackening trend in the current fiscal, an official said.

For the April-August period of 2010-11, FDI inflows declined by 35 percent to USD 8.92 billion compared to USD 13.8 billion in the same period last year, the official said.

According to experts, weak global economic recovery is one of the reasons for declining FDI in India.

"The main reason for the decline in FDI is slump in the major western economies like the US and Europe...," international trade expert with India's prestigious Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT) Rakesh Mohan Joshi said.

Crisil chief economist DK Joshi said: "This is not a good news for Indian economy. This reflects that global economic recovery is still fragile and some impact of that would be reflected in our FDI."

Foreign investment in July 2010 was at USD 1.78 billion, a dip of 49 percent and in June international inflows were at USD 1.38, a dip of 46 per cent over the year ago period.

The sectors which attracted foreign investment, included services, telecommunication, construction activities and computer software and hardware, the official said.

The country received maximum investment from countries like Mauritius, the US, the UK, Singapore, the Netherlands and Japan.

The government has recently floated discussion papers for public comments to liberalise FDI in multi-brand retail and defence sector.

The foreign investment remained low-key despite a recent UNCTAD survey showing that India would remain the second most important FDI destination for transnational corporations during 2010-2012, next only to China.

In its latest 'World Investment Prospects Survey 2010-2012', the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said transnational corporations remain buoyant about investment prospects in China, India and Brazil.

FDI for 2009-10 at USD 25.88 billion was lower by 5 percent from USD 27.33 billion in the previous fiscal.

India's external debt rises to $273.1 billion

India's external debt rose 4.1 percent or USD 10.8 billion to USD 273.1 billion in the first quarter of current fiscal due to a sharp increase in short-term trade credits, commercial borrowings and multilateral government borrowings.

The short-term debt increased by USD 5.4 billion to USD 57.8 billion, accounting for 21.2 percent of the total debt, while the long-term debt rose to USD 215.2 billion at the quarter ended June 30, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its monthly bulletin.

Almost all the components of external debt registered increase during the first three months of fiscal 2010-11. Commercial borrowings and loans under external assistance (multilateral and bilateral debt) increased by USD 2.5 billion and USD 2.3 billion respectively.

The share of commercial borrowings continue to be the highest at 27.3 percent in the total external debt followed by short-term debt (21.2 percent), NRI deposits (17.6 percent) and multilateral debt (16.4 percent).

The valuation effect reflecting the appreciation of the US dollar against other major international currencies and the Indian rupee resulted in a decline of USD 1.3 billion in India's external debt during the reporting quarter.

"Excluding the valuation effects due to appreciation of US dollar against other major international currencies and the Indian rupee, the increase in external debt worked out to USD 12.1 billion over the quarter," the RBI said.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Upcoming results...

October 13, 2010
ARROW TEX Goldcrest Fin Jindal Poly Riddhi Siddhi Tata Metaliks
Elpro Intl Honeywell Auto Marsons Stone India
October 14, 2010
Axis Bank Geojit Bnp Kernex Micro Midas Pharma UTV Software
Dynacons Sys Gruh Finance LIC Housing Fin Rallis India VST Inds
EUROFINMART Infotech Enter Mastek Shirpur Gold
October 15, 2010
Alpha Hitech Dhanprayog Jay Bharat Marut Manappuram Gen Sarthak Inds
Betala Global Eskay Knit Karnataka Bank Nu Tek India SURYAMBA SP
DB Intl Stock Heidelbergcement Krishna Life Orbit Exports Vardhman Poly
Dev Credit Bank Infosys Maharashtra Scoot Polyspin Expo Venus Remedies
October 16, 2010
Asahi Fibres Jaybharat Tex KSL Inds Sudarshan Chem
Associated Ston Key Corp Reliance Indl Infra Suryalakshmi
Godrej Prop Kilpest India Sanghi Corp Unichem Lab

IIP growth dips to 5.6% in Aug

Industrial output in August grew at the slowest pace in 15 months at 5.6 percent, nearly half of last year, disappointing the government that was betting on domestic consumption to drive the economy.

Manufacturing sector, which accounts for 80 percent of the factory ouput numbers and a key indicator of consumer demand, saw growth slip to 5.9 percent from 10.6 per cent in August, 2009.

"(The trend is) a little disappointing. Let us see how it fares in annualised terms," Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said in his comments on the sharp fall in industrial output growth.

Growth in capital goods -- used by the manufacturing segment -- was a negative 2.6 percent in August compared to a 9.2 expansion in the year-ago period.

The poor showing drew immediate calls from the industry against any further increase in key policy rates by the Reserve Bank, which is slated to review its monetary policy on November two.

The RBI has increased policy rates five times this year to cool inflation, following which the rate for its key short-term lending (repo) stands at 6 per cent and borrowing (reverse repo) at 5 percent.

India Inc believes the deceleration was owing to the tight monetary policy stance that has pushed up interest rates for corporates, as well as for retail customers, most of whom rely on loans or credit to buy auto or other consumer durables.

The disappointing industrial output numbers triggered a huge sale on the bourses, as investors booked profits, pulling down the benchmark Sensex by nearly 225 points in intra-day trade. The losses were curtailed to 137 points at close.

Mukherjee, though disappointed, asserted that the "Indian economy is on the path of robust growth led by increased investment and capital inflows, stronger industrial output and rising aggregate demand."

The Finance Minister expects annual industrial growth to be around 12-13 percent, which could push economic growth to 8.5 percent or more. After over 9 percent growth for three years till 2007-08, GDP expansion slipped to 6.7 percent in 2008-09 post the global financial crisis.

The last time factory output growth was slower was in May 2009 (2.7 percent).

Mining sector output decelerated to 7 percent from 11 percent, electricity generation to 1 per cent from 10.6 percent.

"...the RBI should not raise policy rates any further as it could have a negative impact on consumer demand as well as corporate investment and thereby slowdown economic growth," CII said in a statement.

Industry chamber Ficci too said any further hike in interest rates could impact consumer durables and automotive sector.

"Negative growth in key sectors like capital goods, apparels...is indeed a cause of concern and with appreciation in Rupee and hardening of interest rates, the growth of manufacturing sector may be significantly affected," Ficci secretary general Amit Mitra said.

The central bank will have to draw a balance between the need to check prices, as inflation is still high at 8.5 percent, and push up economic growth.

Commenting on the IIP numbers, RBI Governor D Subbarao said, "We will study (IIP numbers). I cannot make a comment (just yet)."

The only sector that showed a positive trend in August was consumer durables which improved to 26.5 percent from 24.7 percent in August last fiscal.

Further, July IIP was revised upwards to 15.2 percent from 13.8 percent in the provisional estimates.

Finance Secretary Ashok Chawla said, "It (the trend) is purely a cyclical movement. Sometimes it goes up, sometimes (it) goes down...We need to watch."

On decline in capital goods production, India's chief statistician TCA Anant said, "It is very difficult to predict a trend based on month-on-month number. Capital goods production always comes with a lag and is difficult to say that there is any slowdown.

Manufacturing growth is good on the broader trend. This kind of variation takes place."

Consumer non-durables, mainly fast moving consumer goods (FMCG), recorded a negative growth of 1.2 percent, as against expansion of 6.1 percent in the same month last year.

Of the 17 industry groups, as many as 14 have shown positive growth during the month of August.

Meanwhile, the industrial expansion figure for July was revised upwards to 15.2 percent from the earlier estimates of 13.8 percent.

Industrial growth for the first five months of this fiscal stood at 10.6 percent in comparison to 5.9 percent growth in the same period a year ago.

According to Standard Chartered Bank economist, Anubhuti Sahay, "GDP growth and industrial output for the fiscal would be in line with projection...going forward industrial output is expected to moderate due to high base effect."

Coal India issue price band set at Rs 225-245

The price band for Coal India’s initial public offering (IPO) will be between Rs 225 and Rs 245 apiece, coal minister, Sriprakash Jaiswal said on Tuesday.

The company will offer 5% discount to the issue price to its employees and retail investors.

The government will put on block 631.64 million shares, of which 63.16 million shares will be reserved for employees. At the higher end of the price band, the company will mop around Rs 15,500 crore, making it the largest ever IPO in the Indian capital market history. So far, the biggest IPO to hit the Indian capital market is Reliance Power, which raised Rs 11,563 crore in January 2008.

The IPO will be open between October 18 and October 21. It will close a day earlier for the qualified institutional buyers (QIBs).

At this price band, the issue price is at a discount to its global peers. The company price-to-earnings multiple based on its FY10 EPS works to 15.73 times at the upper end of the price band, while it is 17.65 for China Shenhua, and 31 for Peabody Energy, USA’s leading coal producer, based on its December 2009 earnings. On listing, Coal India could become the second most valuable coal producing company with a market capitalisation of $35 billion compared with $84.7 billion for China Shenhua, as per Bloomberg data.

The issue comprises 10% of the post-offer paid-up share capital of the company. About 50% of the issue will be allotted to QIBs on a proportionate basis, 15% to non-institutional bidders or high net worth individuals (HNIs) and the rest to retail individual bidders.

The government may allocate up to 30% of the QIB portion to anchor investors, of which at least a third will be reserved for domestic mutual funds. Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, Enam Securities, Kotak Mahindra and Morgan Stanley will manage the IPO. Three rating agency, Crisil, Icra and CARE, have assigned the highest grade of 5/5 to the IPO, indicating strong fundamentals.