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Friday, November 5, 2010
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
RBI raises key rates; FM: may impact short-term growth
Hardening its stance on inflation, RBI Tuesday raised some key policy rates prompting finance minister Pranab Mukherjee to caution that it could have some short-term negative impact on growth.
The apex bank increased its short-term lending (repo) and borrowing (reverse repo) rates by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent and 5.25 percent respectively, but the commercial banks said they would not increase their lending rates immediately.
"This tightening may have some negative impact on the growth rate, but I expect such an effect to be only a short one. In the medium to long term, the changes announced by the RBI today should actually help the Indian economy do better in terms of growth," Mukherjee said.
This was the sixth time this year that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has raised repo and reverse repo rates. The apex bank, however, hoped that going forward it may not have to up the rates further.
India Inc expressed apprehensions that the RBI decision would make loans expensive and may dampen industrial growth.
"This (RBI move) in turn would adversely impact the interest sensitive sectors like consumer durables and auto, which have led the growth hitherto as also on the housing demand," Ficci secretary feneral Amit Mitra said.
RBI has pegged the growth rate for the current fiscal at 8.5 percent, up from 7.4 percent in the previous fiscal.
The mid-year policy initiatives, according to Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia, were in sync with the actions of other central banks.
Although banks said they would refrain from immediately hiking rates, they may not be able to hold on to the existing rate-level for long as demand for credit increases and depositors put pressure on them to raise interest rates.
"So, whether it (hike by RBI) will raise pressure on the system? Eventually, it will. Whether there would be immediate reaction? Not likely," said SBI chairman O P Bhatt.
The hike in the key interest rates according to RBI is aimed at containing inflation, which is above the "comfort level."
Inflation was 8.62 percent in September and food inflation was 13.75 percent in mid-October. RBI has pegged inflation at 5.5 percent by the fiscal- end.
"Today is not such an easy time. The signals from the economy have been mixed. Industrial growth showed a slight slowing down in August. Inflation, while less than what it was some months ago, is still not in a zone where we can sit back," Mukherjee added.
RBI, however, refrained from raising the cash reserve ratio (CRR), which is the proportion of deposits that the banks keep with the central bank, in view of tight liquidity situation.
"I am glad that RBI has risen to the challenge and used a very careful combination of policies to complement what the government is doing to steer our economy to grow better and harness inflation," Mukherjee said.
Stock markets reacted mildly to the hike in policy rates by RBI with the benchmark Sensex ending the day flat. The 30-share index closed 9.94 points lower at 20,345.69 points.
"RBI's move to hike the key policy rates are in line with the Street's expectations and equity markets have not reacted much to the announcement since it has already be factored in," Axis Mutual Fund CEO and MD Rajiv Anand said.
Expressing concern at excessive borrowing for homes, the Reserve Bank also tightened norms for housing loans as well as controversial teaser loans.
The Reserve Bank also cautioned against rising stock and gold prices.
It said huge capital inflows in emerging economies are resulting in appreciation of local currencies and asset prices.
The central bank said it may intervene if forex flows are lumpy and volatile.
The apex bank increased its short-term lending (repo) and borrowing (reverse repo) rates by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent and 5.25 percent respectively, but the commercial banks said they would not increase their lending rates immediately.
"This tightening may have some negative impact on the growth rate, but I expect such an effect to be only a short one. In the medium to long term, the changes announced by the RBI today should actually help the Indian economy do better in terms of growth," Mukherjee said.
This was the sixth time this year that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has raised repo and reverse repo rates. The apex bank, however, hoped that going forward it may not have to up the rates further.
India Inc expressed apprehensions that the RBI decision would make loans expensive and may dampen industrial growth.
"This (RBI move) in turn would adversely impact the interest sensitive sectors like consumer durables and auto, which have led the growth hitherto as also on the housing demand," Ficci secretary feneral Amit Mitra said.
RBI has pegged the growth rate for the current fiscal at 8.5 percent, up from 7.4 percent in the previous fiscal.
The mid-year policy initiatives, according to Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia, were in sync with the actions of other central banks.
Although banks said they would refrain from immediately hiking rates, they may not be able to hold on to the existing rate-level for long as demand for credit increases and depositors put pressure on them to raise interest rates.
"So, whether it (hike by RBI) will raise pressure on the system? Eventually, it will. Whether there would be immediate reaction? Not likely," said SBI chairman O P Bhatt.
The hike in the key interest rates according to RBI is aimed at containing inflation, which is above the "comfort level."
Inflation was 8.62 percent in September and food inflation was 13.75 percent in mid-October. RBI has pegged inflation at 5.5 percent by the fiscal- end.
"Today is not such an easy time. The signals from the economy have been mixed. Industrial growth showed a slight slowing down in August. Inflation, while less than what it was some months ago, is still not in a zone where we can sit back," Mukherjee added.
RBI, however, refrained from raising the cash reserve ratio (CRR), which is the proportion of deposits that the banks keep with the central bank, in view of tight liquidity situation.
"I am glad that RBI has risen to the challenge and used a very careful combination of policies to complement what the government is doing to steer our economy to grow better and harness inflation," Mukherjee said.
Stock markets reacted mildly to the hike in policy rates by RBI with the benchmark Sensex ending the day flat. The 30-share index closed 9.94 points lower at 20,345.69 points.
"RBI's move to hike the key policy rates are in line with the Street's expectations and equity markets have not reacted much to the announcement since it has already be factored in," Axis Mutual Fund CEO and MD Rajiv Anand said.
Expressing concern at excessive borrowing for homes, the Reserve Bank also tightened norms for housing loans as well as controversial teaser loans.
The Reserve Bank also cautioned against rising stock and gold prices.
It said huge capital inflows in emerging economies are resulting in appreciation of local currencies and asset prices.
The central bank said it may intervene if forex flows are lumpy and volatile.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
New IIP from Jan; to reflect better picture
The government is likely to come out with a more representative data on industrial production from January next year that would include about 100 new items, while excluding the obsolete ones."The December data is expected to come out on January 12, 2011, for which the new series of index of industrial production (IIP) would be released," an official told.
The new series would be more representative and will have more items in the rejigged basket.
Besides, it will take 2004-05 as the base year that will reflect industrial scenario better than the base of 1993-94 used currently.
"The industry ministry is waiting for Planning Commission's opinion. They have some issues that will be sorted out soon. The new series will then be approved by Committee of Secretaries," the official added.
Currently, IIP basket has about 350 items for calculating the monthly factory output figures. The new series would be more representative and would constitute over 500 products, the official said.
It is also expected to do away with obsolete items and add those products which have entered the markets in recent years. The official, however, did not divulge the details of new products and the old ones which will be deleted.
Industrial growth slowed down to 5.6 percent in August from 10.6 percent in the same month of the previous fiscal.
IIP data has been often criticised for not catching up with the times and providing archaic figures, compared to the ones provided by other agencies like Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).
According to industry body Ficci there is a strong momentum in industrial growth and it is expected to expand by 9 percent in the current financial year.
The government has recently rolled out a new wholesale price-based index for measuring inflation.
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