Long Term Investment: MARG & TEXMACO

Following are the Stocks that You can not miss, Invest into these stocks with medium to long term perspective...

Marg Ltd @ 220-230 Levels (Long Term) [buy on every low]

Texmaco Ltd @ 160-165 Levels (Medium/Long Term) [buy on every low]

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Note: Do not invest into the above stocks with the intention of Trading

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Article on: How to analyze the company

Following are the points to be considered for value investing and getting decent returns, please note that if you are investing refering this article, then you should consider all the following points mentioned in this article

• What is Fundamental Analysis
• Invest in Good Company
• Earnings
• Current Valuations of the Shares
• Future Earnings Growth
• Debit status of the Company
• Company’s Announcements

What is Fundamental analysis?
Fundamental analysis is basically done for long term and mid term investment which is also called as delivery based investment or trading.
The main important aim behind is to study and understand the company in which you are planning to invest your hard earned money and get excellent returns.

How to analyze the fundamentals of the company? Basically one should be able to judge at least how the company has done in past years, its debit status, its current valuation, its future growth prospects, its earning capacity etc
So that based on these terms he can at least decide whether to invest in this company or not.

What you should look for in a company to invest?
1. About Company -
What the company is doing and what are its businesses?
How is the current demand for their products and how the demand will be in future like in next 3 to 5 years and so? (It is difficult to analyze the future demand yourself so you can visit financial websites or contact us)

2. Earnings -
This is very important parameter. Broadly look into its last 5 or 10 years earnings whether the company has posted profits or losses.
It’s all about earnings. The bottom line is investors want to know how much money the company is making and how much it is going to make in the future.
To find the earning status ratios used are EPS - Earning per share

3. Current valuation -
This is another very important factor which most of the investor forgets while doing their investments.
Generally most of the investors invest at higher valuations of shares and when share prices start coming down then they keep worrying, so this should not happen.
Before investing one should check the current valuation of the share price and invest only when the share price is at right price and not at over priced share.
This is what happened in January 2008. Most of the people invested at very high valuations and later on the share prices started to correct (falling down).
To find the current valuation of the stock the ratios used are
PE ratio - Price to earning ratio
Book value
PB ratio - Price to book value ratio

4. Future earnings growth -
It is very important to analyze how the company is going to do in future. How will be its returns or its profits etc?
Basically most of the investors invest in shares taking into consideration Company’s future growth prospects.
To find the future growth of the stock the ratios used are
PEG ratio - Price to earning growth ratio
Current EPS and Forward EPS
Price to sales ratio

5. Debit status -
For any company to perform well in the future it is very important to be debt free or less debit because if company is having large debits like borrowings, loans then it becomes difficult for it to plan for any acquisitions, expansion plans take over plans, dividend payout and very important its most of the net profit goes in paying the interest and loans and other debits.
So in other words if the company is having fewer debits or no debit then they are having lots of cash in hand and they are free to take any decision in coming future.
To find the debit status of the company the ratios used are
Debit ratio

So to accomplish above parameters fundamental analyst follow certain ratios which are mentioned below.



Earnings
Earning Per Share - EPS
EPS plays major role in investment decision.
EPS is calculated by taking the net earnings of the company and dividing it by the outstanding shares.

EPS = Net Earnings / Outstanding Shares
(Nowadays you will get this ready made, no need for you to do calculation.)

For example -
If Company A had earnings of RS 1000 crores and 100 shares outstanding, then its EPS becomes 10 (RS 1000 / 100 = 10).
Second example -
If Company B had earnings of RS 1000 crores and 500 shares outstanding, then its EPS becomes 2 (RS 1000 / 500 = 50).

So what is that you have to look in EPS of the company?
Answer - You should look for high EPS stocks and the higher the better is the stock.

Note - You should compare the EPS from one company to another, which are in the same industry/sector and not from one company from Auto sector and another company from IT sector.

Before we move on, you should note that there are three types of EPS numbers:

Trailing EPS - Trailing EPS means last year’s EPS which is considered as actual and for ongoing current year.
Current EPS - Current EPS means which is still under projections and going to come on financial year end.
Forward EPS - Forward EPS which is again under projections and going to come on next financial year end

But the EPS alone doesn’t tell you the whole story of the company so for this information, we need to look at some more ratios as following.
It’s not advisable to make your investment decisions based on only single ratio analysis.
EPS is the base for calculating PE ratio.

Importance of Earnings -
Earnings are profits. Quarterly or yearly company’s increasing earnings generally makes its stock price move up and in some cases some companies pay out a regular dividend. This is Bullish sign and indicates that the company’s is in growth.

When the company declares low earnings then the market may see bearishness in the stock price and hence its share price starts deceasing and corrects further if the company doesn’t provide any sufficient justification for low earnings.

Every quarter, companies report its earnings. There are 4 quarters.

Quarter 1 - (April to June and earnings will be declared in July)
Quarter 2 - (July to Sept and earnings will be declared in Oct)
Quarter 3 - (Oct to Dec and earnings will be declared in Jan)
Quarter 4/final - Also called as financial year end - (Jan to Mar and earnings will be declared in April)

Now by this time you would have understood how earnings are important for a stock price to move up or down. But depending only on earnings one should not make investment or trading decision. To make decision more risk free you should look into more tools as mentioned below so that your investment decision becomes more solid and you should get excellent returns in future.

Conclusion - Keep a close watch on quarterly earnings and trade or invest accordingly or manipulate your investing.

Following are the most popular and important tools/ratios to find excellent growth stocks which focuses on earning, growth, and value of the company’s.

Current Valuations of the shares
Price to Earnings Ratio - PE ratio
PE ratio is again one of the most important ratio on which most of the traders and investors keep watch.
Important - The PE ratio tells you whether the stock’s price is high or low compared to its forward earnings.
The high P/E suggests that investors are expecting higher earnings growth in the future compared to companies with a lower P/E. This generally happen in bull market and share price keeps on increasing. Basically in bull market share prices keep increasing without giving more importance to its current valuation and once market realizes that it is over priced then they start selling.
In bear market the low PE stocks having high growth prospects are selected as best investment options.

But, the P/E ratio doesn't tell us the whole story of the company.
Generally the P/E ratios are compared of one company to other companies in the same sector/industry and not in other industry before selecting any particular share.

The PE ratio is calculated by taking the share price and dividing it by the companies EPS.
That is
PE = Stock Price / EPS

For example
A company with a share price of RS 40 and an EPS of 8 would have a PE ratio of 5
(RS 40 / 8 = 5).

Importance - The PE ratio gives you an idea of what the market is willing to pay for the companies earning.
The higher the P/E the more the market is willing to pay for the companies earning.
Some investors say that a high P/E ratio means the stock is over priced on the other side it also indicates the market has high hopes for such company’s future growth and due to which market is ready to pay high price.
On the other side, a low P/E of high growth stocks may indicate that the market has ignored these stocks which are also known as value stocks. Many investors try finding low P/E ratios stocks of high value growth companies and make investments in such stocks which may prove real diamonds in future.

Which P/E ratio to choose?
If you believe that the companies has good long term prospects and good growth then one should not hesitate to invest in high P/E ratio stocks and if you are looking for value stocks which prove real diamonds in future then you can go with low PE stocks provided that companies has good growth and expansions plans.
At all if you would like to do PE ratio comparison then it has to be done in same sectors/industry stocks and not like one stock from banking sector and other stock from pharmacy sector.
So now you would have come to know how to choose stocks based on PE ratio.

What is book value?
Book value is the total value of the company's assets that shareholders would theoretically receive if a company were liquidated (closed).
By being compared to the company's market value, the book value can indicate whether a stock is under priced or overpriced.
So in other words if the share price is trading below its book value then it is considered as under priced and good for value investing.

Price to Book Ratio - PB ratio
Basically PB ratio is mostly utilized by smart investors to find real wealth in shares, so investing in stocks having low PB ratio is to identify potential shares for future growth.

A lower P/B ratio could mean that the stock is undervalued.

Like the PE, the lower the PB, the better the value of the stock for future growth.

Some of the investors become quite wealthy by holding stocks for the long term of such companies whose growth is based on their businesses instead of market and one day when every one notices this stock the value investor’s pockets are full of profit.

PB ratio is calculated as
PB ratio = Share Price / Book Value per Share.

Generally, if the ratio comes below 1 then it is considered as value investing. But this doesn’t mean that the ratio coming to 1.2 or 1.5 is not value investing. It also depends on its future growth prospects.

Future earnings growth

Projected Earning Growth ratio - PEG ratio
Because the market is usually more concerned about the future than the present, it is always looking for companies projected plans, financial ratios, and other future announcements.

The use of PEG ratio will help you look at future earnings growth of the company.

PEG is a widely used indicator of a stock's potential value.
Similar to the P/E ratio, a lower PEG means that the stock is more undervalued.

To calculate the PEG the P/E is divided by the projected growth in earnings.

That is PEG = P/E / (projected growth in earnings)

For example -
A stock with a P/E of 30 and projected earning growth for next year is 15% then that stock would have a PEG of 2 (30 / 15 = 2).
In above example what does the “2” mean?

Lower the PEG ratio the less you pay for each unit in future earning growth. So the conclusion is you can invest in high P/E stocks but the projected earning growth should be high so that companies can provide good returns.

Looking at the opposite situation; a low P/E stock with low or no projected earnings growth is not going to give you good returns in future because its PE is low means investors are not ready to pay high and its PEG is also low because companies do not have any good future growth or expansion plans so investment in such stocks could prove less or no returns.

A few important things to remember about PEG:
It is about year-to-year earnings growth.
It relies on projections, which may not always be accurate.
It’s forward earning estimation which market analyst or company calculates.

Following two ratios are again the projection or estimation done by either market analyst or by company resources.

Current EPS - Current EPS means which is still under projections and going to come on financial year end.
Forward EPS - Forward EPS which is again under projections and going to come on next financial year end.

Price to Sales Ratio
The question is, is it that companies having no current earnings are bad investments?
Answer is Not necessarily, because such companies may be new and trying to grow and expand but you should approach such companies with precaution.

The Price to Sales (P/S) ratio looks at the current stock price relative to the total sales per share.

You can calculate the P/S by dividing the market cap of the company by the total revenues of the company.

You can also calculate the P/S by dividing the current stock price by the sales per share.

That is
P/S = Market Cap / Revenues
or
P/S = Stock Price / Sales Price per Share

Conclusion - To find under valued stocks you can look for low P/S ratios.

The lower the P/S ratio the better is the value of the company.


Debit status of the Company

Debit Ratio
This is one the very important ratio as this tells you how much company relies on debit to finance its assets.
The higher the ratio the more risk for company to manage going forward. So look for company’s having low debit ratio.
Generally it is considered that debit ratio less then 1is good investment option. But even some investor considers higher debit ratio provided the company is having good growth prospects.

If company has fewer debits then company can make more profit instead paying for its debits like interests rates, loans etc.

Dividend Yield
If you are a value investor or looking for dividend income then you should look for Dividend Yield figure of the stock.
This measurement tells you what percentage return a companies pays out to shareholders in the form of dividends. Older, well-established companies tend to payout a higher percentage then do younger companies and their dividend history can be more consistent.

You calculate the Dividend Yield by taking the annual dividend per share and divide by the stock’s price.
That is
Dividend Yield = annual dividend per share / stock's price per share
For example
If a company’s annual dividend is RS 1.50 and the stock trades at RS 25, the Dividend Yield is 6%. (RS 1.50 / RS 25 = 0.06).

Important Note -
Any single tool or ratio should not be used to make your investment or trading decision nor will they provide you any buy or sell recommendation. All tools should be used to find growth and value stocks.
After making use of above all tools you will get excellent stocks which will give you excellent returns in mid term to long term.
You will find all these ratios in any financial website or you can contact us.


Company’s announcements
Always keep a close watch on stocks you are interested to buy or you already bought for any mergers, take over, acquisitions, stake sells, new product launch etc. This would make the major impact on company. This is important point

Profit after Tax
Check out company’s PAT (profit after tax) of every quarterly if you are short term to mid term trader and if you are long term investor then check out its yearly PAT. The company should have posted consistent growth.

VLS Finance Hotel Case should be in VLS Finance favour

VLS Finance: There is talk floating around of a favourable outcome in an ongoing case over Sunair Hotels. According to a report in Business India magazine, in 1995, VLS invested in Sunair Hotel and for Rs70 million, it got a 25% stake in this five-star hotel in Delhi, which runs the Metropolitan Nikko at Connaught Place. The balance Rs220 million was brought in by the promoters, the Gupta family, while a Singapore-based hotel chain, Accor Asia, was to bring in Rs10 million at a premium of Rs90. VLS also mobilised loans of Rs850 million, agreed to manage the public issue, and gave Sunair a security deposit of Rs100 million at an interest rate of 20%. VLS claims that within a year, Accor withdrew, and Sunair was not paying the quarterly interest on the deposits. VLS and the Guptas are mired in a legal battle over the property which, in 2007 itself, was valued at Rs8 billion. VSL says that according to the agreement, it would become the majority stakeholder.

Govt moots relaxation in FDI rules on JVs

The government on Friday proposed a major relaxation in FDI rules to allow foreign firms to bring in new technology and set up new independent business without clearance from their existing local partners.

The move is aimed at attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country, which has recently slowed down.

Under the present dispensation, a foreign player who had set up a joint venture (JV) in India before January 12, 2005 but now wants to open a new business independent of the existing domestic partner faces barriers.

The foreign player not only needs the government approval but also a 'no-objection certificate' from the domestic partner to the effect that the new forays would not "jeopardise" interest of the existing JV.

"The proposal is a welcome move it will attract more and more FDI and will also bring in high quality products for Indian consumers at competitive price," Naresh Makhijani, Executive Director, KPMG said.

The FDI rules proposed to be relaxed were not applicable to the joint ventures entered after January 12, 2005. Thus, the changes would help foreign investors who entered JVs before this date.

Suggesting abolition of this rule, the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) said in a discussion paper, "There is a need to examine whether such a conditionality continues to be relevant in the present day context."

Alternatively, it has suggested that the stipulation of no-objection from the domestic partner should not be applicable to JVs which are 10-year old.

It has invited comments from the stakeholders till October 15.

The move follows representations from foreign investors pointing out that their domestic partners were using a string of press notes since 1998 "as a means of extracting unreasonable prices/commercial advantage. These press notes had become a stumbling block for further FDI coming into the country."

The DIPP, the nodal agency for FDI related matters, said India has entered into a number of free trade agreements and several others are under negotiations.

"In such a scenario if an industry (FDI) is discouraged from being set up in India, it could be set up in a neighbouring country with whom a trade agreement exists or is being negotiated," it said.

India received USD 25.8 billion FDI in 2009-10.

After a pick up in the first two months of the current fiscal, the inflows have slowed down for June and July.

KRBL: Stock that gained 54% in 5 days

The catastrophic floods which have destroyed Pakistan's rice crop seem to have opened doors for India's Basmati rice producers. One of the beneficiaries has been Basmati rice exporter KRBL. Its stock price gained 54% over the last five days. Today, however, it managed just 1.80% or Rs 0.65 to end at Rs 36.80. It touched an intraday high of Rs 38.50 and an intraday low of Rs 36.05 and touched a 52-week high of Rs 38.50.

Why the run-up?

The most devastating floods in Pakistan’s history has destroyed crops and damaged infrastructure severely. A rice exporters’ group in Pakistan has forecast that exports may plunge significantly for the year.

In an interview, Anil Mittal, CMD, KRBL said, "The rice prices have increased by about USD 100 in the last 10-15 days. This is primarily because Pakistan floods have helped India to boost their prices. Since Pakistani prices have also increased by USD 100-150 in the last one month, that is the reason Indian prices have been boosted by USD 150 per tonne.

India, the second largesst producer of rice, had put into practice a trade ban on non-Basmati rice in April 2008 to increase the country's domestic supplies. The drought in 2009 further compounded issues for the government with a double-digit fall in rice production forcing it to continue with its restrictions in 2009.

Mittal however expects relaxations on export parameters for non-Basmati rice any time soon. "Looking at the monsoons and looking at the prospects of non-Basmati crop, I am quite confident that by October, the government will take the position of the crop and will definitely open the exports of non-Basmati rice."

As compared to about 2.8 million tonne of the total Indian export, KRBL's export this year is about 140,000 tonne. "We are expecting a 20% rise overall. The Indian exports of Basmati will jump by 20% this year because of the Pakistani floods," said Mittal.

What experts said during the week:

Rahul Mohindar, viratechindia.com told, "KRBL is pretty good from a long term count. But the stock has obviously run up to a good degree. It had a significant price and volume breakout over the last couple of weeks, which certainly makes this very potential longer run. But again if you are worried about the short term, Rs 36 to Rs 38 is a resistance area. We are still sitting in that zone where we might knock off 8% or 10%. So unless you are really worked out about the very short term I would still recommend holding on to the stock. We see this as a candidate for about Rs 52 and one has to be prepared that the stock can correct to something like Rs 31–32. So keeping that downside cushion, one should continue holding on to KRBL. It has made a case with the kind of volumes and price breakouts that we have seen over the last week where it shows that there is a lot more potential to come."

He added,"I am obviously looking at a timeframe of about 6 months plus. It’s a stock which can give you one of those sudden momentum moves. But again one should keep a timeframe of approximately 6 months in mind."

Mitesh Thacker, Technical Analyst, miteshthacker.com said, "We have seen a strong run-up in all the rice stocks. KRBL though it is difficult to give a price target on it, because it has broken into all time highs, but if we look at the momentum and the technical setup, there is at least a 15% upside, and Rs 40-42 should be easily tested probably even higher."

Gujarat Gas: Stock that surged 10% in a strong mkt

Ahmedabad based leading private gas distributor, Gujarat Gas Company Limited's stock rose over 10% on the back of an increase in compressed natural gas (CNG) prices by the company to Rs 32.45 per kg. The stock surged 10.21%, or Rs 36.05 to end at Rs 389. It touched a 52-week high and an intraday high of Rs 403.40 and an intraday low of Rs 352.95. There were pending sell orders of 26 shares, with no buyers available.

Why the run-up?

Following a supply crunch from its conventional sources, and an increase in input costs, the company hiked the price of CNG effective September 5, 2010 to Rs 32.45 per kg, an 8% increase over the existing price of Rs 29.96 per kg in Bharuch, Ankleshwar and Surat in Gujarat.

In 2009, the company had raised CNG prices following a weak rupee and revised electricity tariffs in the state. Over 100,000 vehicles in these towns run on CNG.

The company has been a part of the British Gas Group, a global leader in natural gas, since 1997. BG Group has a 65.12% controlling stake in GGCL. FIs, FIIs and public hold the remaining 34.88% of shares.

Since January of this year, gas prices for industrial units have gone up almost 10%. A growing demand for natural gas has put the company in a sweet spot.

It has a strong presence in Gujarat, which offers good potential for natural gas across industries. As gas supply in India increases, natural gas could become a cheaper and a superior alternative to industrial fuels like naphtha, used in power, steel and fertiliser industries.

Also, the number of vehicles using CNG is expected to rise significantly over the next five years, according to estimates of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board. Gujarat Gas is strategically well placed to take advantage of this growing demand, combined with its focus on the industrial market on the retail side. The company also has long-term contracts with domestic suppliers which provides it good revenue visibility.

VLS Finance, highly undervalued Stock

VLS Finance is a flagship company of VLS Group. It operates through four of its subsidiaries and VLS Investment is another peer into the same subsidiary group. VLS Finance is a very interesting as the stock is terribly undervalued. The market cap of this company is just Rs 60 crore. The company had investments in Sunair Hotels, which is a Delhi metropolitan hotel, which is roughly worth Rs 800 crore. There is a pending litigation on the company with Gupta brothers.

If I see the entire litigation aspect I feel the case should be in favour of the VLS Finance Group and then this stock can be a multi-baggier because if I see the entire aspect—Rs 800 crore of worth where the company would be holding approximately 87% after the case hearing is closed—that will mean that the value of the stock itself would be around Rs 600 crore.

The current market cap is Rs 60 crore. Apart from this the company holds 14% in Relaxo Footwear along with its subsidiary, which again works out to be Rs 60 crore that means you are having a free stock available for you where there is unlimited upside—5-6 times even from here—and almost no downside for the stock.

The stock last time in 2007, just before the hearing, was approximately hovering around Rs 80-90 levels. With the case hearing coming near the stock could again go to those levels and if the case hearing is actually going to be in favour of the VLS Finance Group the market cap could be anywhere between Rs 400-500 crore also.

At Rs 600 crore marketcap where there is no downside risk because of Relaxo Footwear and other holdings like Gati etc, and there is unlimited upside potential we feel that this stock could be a multi baggier from current levels.

Q: So what is you price target on it?

A: If someone has the potential to hold it for couple of years or three years down the line he could see the stock even in three figures.