Favourable demographics, structural reforms and the effects of globalisation will help India to get past China to become world’s fastest growing economy by 2013-15, Morgan Stanley has said.“Over the next two years, India should start matching China’s GDP growth of around 8.5-9.5%, barring another global financial crisis.
More importantly, we think that by 2013-15, India will start outpacing China’s GDP growth notably,” Morgan Stanley economists Chetan Ahya and Tanvee Gupta reportedly concluded in a research paper.
While China’s growth rate will likely to slow down to 8 percent from about 10 percent by 2015, they added.
China has maintained an average growth rate of ten percent over 30 years.
However, China economy and its per-capita income will be well ahead of India, it added. India will need another 10-11 years to match the per-capita income of China’s 2009 levels of USD 3,750, the research paper said.
Notably, China has recently overtaken Japan as the second-biggest economy in the second quarter.
India is the eleventh largest economy in the world by nominal GDP and the fourth largest by purchasing power parity (PPP) while China is now the second largest economy in the world with a nominal GDP of USD 4.99 trillion.
India’s nominal GDP stands at USD 1.250 trillion.
